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Emilia Chojkiewicz 1, 2, Nikit Abhyankar 1, Amol Phadke 1,*
1 IECC, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California Berkeley
2 Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley
* Corresponding author – email
As India’s electricity demand grows rapidly, the country has a $100 billion plan for major grid expansion by 2032 which includes increasing the length of the transmission network by over 40%.
This massive investment offers an opportunity to think strategically about future-proofing grid expansion. To this regard, composite-core High Temperature Low Sag (HTLS) conductors have been widely adopted in India through reconductoring projects to increase transmission capacity within existing right-of-way. However, utilizing equivalent-diameter HTLS conductors in India’s planned greenfield transmission projects, in place of the conventional conductors currently planned, would enable the valuable optionality of higher thermal capability. We find that, as a result of HTLS conductors’ ~25% lower resistance than equivalent-diameter conventional conductors, the conductors’ cost premium would likely be recovered through reduced I2R line losses at equivalent line loadings in approximately 4 years for 220, 400 and 765kV transmission lines, with some variation depending on load factor and electricity cost. Our estimates suggest that utilizing HTLS conductors in all planned greenfield lines by 2032 would cost an additional $22 billion or 22% over the current $100 billion plan with ACSR conductors, but loss savings would likely pay back the investment within 4 years. This can also lead to lower total transmission costs over their line’s lifetime while offering the valuable optionality of additional thermal capability for when it may be needed in the future, which is likely to be valuable given significant load growth and the increasing difficulty of acquiring rights-of-way for new transmission lines.
In spite of their small market share today, given both the near-term and long-term benefits as well as the load growth uncertainty, we suggest that the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) recommend composite-core HTLS conductors in new transmission lines.
We also recommend that state and central regulators facilitate such investments through the evaluation of greenfield transmission investments on a total cost of ownership (TCO) basis, incorporating line losses.
